$455 million by 2034. That is the market forecast for pharmaceuticals processed in microgravity, a 20% CAGR from essentially zero today. The number comes from a ProMarket Reports analysis published in June 2026. It captures a shift over the last 18 months: orbital drug manufacturing has stopped being a science experiment.
1. Varda Space Industries signed the first-ever commercial pharma manufacturing deal in orbit with United Therapeutics, a $25 billion market-cap biopharma company putting its own balance sheet behind space-made drugs.
2. The bottleneck is no longer technical. Multiple startups (Varda, BioOrbit, Space Forge, SpacePharma) have flown operational missions. The bottleneck is return cadence and regulatory approval for reentry.
3. Merck's Keytruda ISS experiment proved the principle. Microgravity-produced crystals were more uniform and enabled a shift from IV to subcutaneous injection. The industry is now scaling that proof into a production pipeline.
Varda's capital stack
Backed by Founders Fund, Khosla Ventures, and Peter Thiel. The Series C was led by Natural Capital and Shrug Capital. · TechCrunch, BioProcess International
The deal that changed the narrative
On May 13, 2026, MIT Technology Review broke the story: Varda Space Industries had signed United Therapeutics to test pharmaceuticals in orbit. The biopharma company, valued at $25 billion, committed its own balance sheet to fly drug compounds on its W-series reentry capsules. "This is the first commercial path to products made in space," Michael Reilly, the company's chief strategy officer, told the publication.
In microgravity, sedimentation and convection currents disappear. Molecules crystallize more slowly and more uniformly. Merck proved this in 2019 when it sent samples of Keytruda (pembrolizumab) to the International Space Station. The crystals recovered in orbit had a single size distribution of 39 microns, compared to the bimodal 13 and 102 micron mix produced on Earth. That work, published in npj Microgravity, helped Merck develop an injectable formulation of Keytruda, shifting administration from a 30-minute IV drip to a subcutaneous shot.
By leveraging microgravity effects such as reduced sedimentation and minimal convection currents, conditions producing crystalline suspensions of homogeneous monomodal particle size distribution in high yield were identified.— Merck & Sharp Dome research team, npj Microgravity, 2019
United Therapeutics is after the same kind of reformulation. CEO Martine Rothblatt worked on early telecommunications satellites before building a multibillion-dollar pulmonary hypertension franchise. The company wants to crystallize its existing drugs in orbit, hoping microgravity produces polymorphs with better stability, longer shelf life, or more patient-friendly delivery. Its first flight carrying United Therapeutics compounds is expected before the end of 2026.
BioOrbit: the European contender
A UK startup called BioOrbit is building an alternative approach. Backed by £9.8 million in seed funding and a UK Space Agency contract, BioOrbit develops satellite-based hardware for large-scale crystallization of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). In June 2026, the company's Baby BOX-E payload successfully boarded the International Space Station, with ESA astronaut Sophie Adenot installing the equipment at 400 kilometers altitude.
BioOrbit's CEO Dr. Katie King described the mission at HLTH Europe in Amsterdam: "Crystallization is a process that is better in space compared to on Earth, and that's because gravity inhibits that process. By doing it in space, you get much more uniform and perfect crystals than you can produce on Earth." The company's goal is to convert intravenous therapies into subcutaneous injections, the same transformation Merck achieved with Keytruda but at production scale.
On June 24, 2026, BioOrbit signed an MOU with Vast, the commercial space station developer. Vast's Haven stations are designed to provide the dedicated microgravity lab infrastructure that BioOrbit needs for repeat access and production cadence. BioOrbit's LinkedIn post announcing the partnership drew 363 reactions.
Space Forge and the materials angle
The orbital manufacturing thesis extends beyond drugs. UK-based Space Forge raised $30 million in Series A funding to develop ForgeStar, a returnable satellite that manufactures pharmaceuticals and advanced semiconductors in microgravity. In June 2025, ForgeStar-1 reached orbit and generated its first plasma, reaching a furnace temperature of 1,000 °C. The company calls its model "microgravity as a service."
Space Forge's CEO Joshua Western: "Generating plasma on orbit represents a fundamental shift. It proves that the essential environment for advanced crystal growth can be achieved on a dedicated, commercial satellite." The company focuses on wide-bandgap semiconductors including gallium nitride, silicon carbide, and diamond, where gravity-induced defects reduce yield and performance on Earth.
The competitive landscape
BioOrbit — £9.8M seed, Baby BOX-E on ISS, MOU with Vast. Focus on mAb crystallization, European supply chain angle.
Space Forge — $30M Series A, ForgeStar-1, broader materials play (pharma plus semiconductors). UK-based.
SpacePharma — Swiss, miniaturized lab-on-chip (DIDO, SPAd), targeting large-scale orbital pharma with MoTi platform.
Sierra Space + Merck — Dream Chaser-based crystallization modules. Established pharma partnership but earlier stage.
The technical reality
Microgravity crystallization faces a constraint that no amount of funding has solved yet: return cadence. The ISS runs experiments on crew time measured in years. Varda's W-series capsules offer dedicated missions, but each capsule must be licensed for reentry by the FAA under Part 450 regulations. Its first reentry, carrying ritonavir crystals, took months of regulatory negotiation before receiving approval in February 2024. Since then, three successful capsule returns have been completed, with CEO Will Bruey telling SpaceNews that the company aims for monthly missions.
The physics is well understood. A 2026 perspective in npj Microgravity by Andrew KD Younger mapped the case for orbital biomanufacturing, from pharmaceutical crystallization to radiation-hardening coatings for defense applications. The paper cited the company's W-series vehicles and Intuitive Machines' Zephyr platforms as key enabling technologies. As we wrote in July, orbital biomanufacturing is creating a new industry for growing human tissue in space. The same platforms that serve pharma can serve regenerative medicine.
The open question is unit economics. A single mission costs tens of millions in launch and reentry operations. For a $455 million market to materialize by 2034, the cost per kilogram of returned pharmaceutical must fall by at least an order of magnitude. SpaceX's Starship, with its projected $100/kg launch costs, is the most credible path to that. But Starship has not yet demonstrated routine reentry capability for manufacturing payloads. Starfall, a reentry vehicle disclosed in FAA documents in June 2026, could be the missing piece. It is a disk-shaped capsule designed for high-cadence material return from orbit.
What happens to the market three years from now?
Probability: 65% — The company has the capital ($329M), the customer (United Therapeutics), and a regulatory pathway (FAA Part 450). The constraint is launch cadence, not demand.
✅ Arguments for
Confirmation criteria: Varda announces a second commercial pharma client by Q2 2027; FAA streamlines Part 450 reentry licensing for high-cadence operations.
❌ Arguments against
Disconfirmation criteria: No Varda commercial pharma flight by mid-2027; United Therapeutics terminates or restructures the partnership.
1. Varda's next commercial flight — if it carries United Therapeutics compounds and returns successfully, the industry transitions from proof-of-concept to production.
2. FAA Part 450 rulemaking — any streamlining for high-cadence reentry licensing is a sector-wide catalyst.
3. Starship reentry capability — if SpaceX demonstrates routine return of manufacturing payloads, the cost curve breaks.
4. BioOrbit's first splashdown — Baby BOX-E crystals returning to Earth for pre-clinical trials validates the European track.
Development scenarios
🟢 Optimistic scenario (20%)
Implications: Orbital manufacturing infrastructure (Vast, Axiom) becomes a prerequisite investment for big pharma. Space Forge's semiconductor play accelerates alongside pharma.
🟡 Base-case scenario (55%)
Implications: Orbital pharma remains a niche but profitable vertical within the broader space economy. Varda consolidates its lead. European players split the biotech market.
🔴 Pessimistic scenario (25%)
Implications: Microgravity manufacturing pivots to non-pharma applications — fiber optics, semiconductors — where the margin structure can absorb higher risk. The pharma thesis is delayed by a full cycle.
